Robots taking our jobs? Stop agonising and take action to skill up for the jobs of the future

Pearson, in partnership with Nesta, and in collaboration with researchers from the Oxford Martin School, have released a report entitled The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030.

The study takes an entirely new approach to forecasting employment and skill demands in the UK and US. In contrast to many recent headlines, the study finds that many jobs today will still be in demand by 2030 and beyond. However, while jobs may remain, the skills needed for success are changing.

For the first time ever, researchers combined diverse human expertise with active machine learning to produce a more nuanced view of future employment trends. Using this innovative approach, the study forecasts that only one in five workers are in occupations that face a high likelihood of decline.

The research also forecasts one in ten people are highly likely to experience a rise in demand for their job. The remaining roughly 70% of workers are in jobs where there is greater uncertainty about the future: these workers can boost their prospects if they can invest in the right skills.

 

Prepare for the future

Rather than “doom and gloom”, the findings show how we can take action to help more people prepare for the future.

Across both the UK and the US, the occupations forecast to most likely experience a rise in employment are associated with education, health care and wider public sector occupations. Creative, digital, design, and engineering occupations are also found to have bright outlooks in both countries. Decline in employment is forecast to take place in occupations related to transportation and traditional manufacturing.

Knowledge areas such as English language, history, philosophy and administration and management are all generally associated with occupations forecast to see a rise in workforce share. By contrast, STEM-related knowledge areas such as science and technology design will find use only in particular occupations.

Meanwhile, strong social skills will be the key to success as demand for uniquely human skills rises. The skills forecast to be in higher future demand include social perceptiveness, active learning, active listening, judgement, and decision making. In addition, cognitive skills such as fluency of ideas, originality, and oral expression are forecast to increase in demand – whereas physical abilities such as stamina, depth perception, are forecast to decline.

 

Bright future

“The future of work is brighter than conventional wisdom suggests–it is not going to be human versus machine, but rather human and machine,” said John Fallon, chief executive officer, Pearson. “It is clear that technology is changing the global economy and labour markets, but we still retain the ability to control our destiny. We must reevaluate the skills people will need for a digital future, and update our education systems to ensure teachers have the right tools to help students succeed in the workforce of tomorrow.”

”While there is no shortage of research assessing the impacts of automation on individual occupations, there is far less that focuses on skills, and even less so that has actionable insights for stakeholders in areas like job redesign and learning priorities. The future of work for most people is not inevitable,” said Hasan Bakhshi, Executive Director, Creative Economy and Data Analytics, Nesta.

“In the face of legitimate concerns about the consequences of technological change on jobs, our study identifies where new opportunities might emerge,” said Michael Osborne, co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment. “We show what the entirely new jobs of the future might look like: these include those accessible to those affected by automation.”

Philippe Schneider, researcher and co-author of the report, said: “Jobs are the cornerstone of our social and economic lives. Today many are concerned that jobs face a period of sustained disruption – not only as a result of automation but also globalization, demographic and environmental change and political uncertainty. Thinking systematically about these trends cannot give conclusive answers on what is around the corner, but it can provide clues and challenge imaginations as we design policies to improve the adaptability and employability of our workforces.”

Many studies agree that occupations with relatively low skills requirements are those most under threat of automation. However, this study finds that some activities like food preparation and hospitality will grow in importance, reflecting wider consumer trends, such as the re-emergence of artisanal employment in occupations like brewing and barbering.

In the UK, occupations related to natural and social sciences, food and hospitality and education and teaching are the most likely to see a rise in demand. Engineering occupations, health and social services jobs, artistic and media occupations and public service jobs will also see an increase in demand.

The full report can be viewed here: http://futureskills.pearson.com.

Related reading